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In vivo cell therapy landscape

BMS just spent $1.5B on Orbital Therapeutics. Here's what the in vivo cell therapy landscape looks like now.

Andrew Pannu

I used Sleuth to aggregate 113 assets and mapped 107 across 51 select players.

Some takeaways:

First, a statistical breakdown of the landscape:

  • Stage: 86% preclinical vs. 14% clinical
  • TA: 58% oncology, 17% I&I, 18% both, 8% other
  • Geo: 54% US, 35% China, 5% Both, 6% Other
  • Targets: 30% CD19, 37% Other, 32% N/A

The BMS acquisition is the latest in a string of Pharma interest:

  • ABBV / Capstan ($2.1B)
  • AZN / Esotec ($1B)
  • GILD / Interius ($350M)

Autoimmune disease has been in focus across these deals - and for good reason. Despite high annual costs ($60-80K per year), most patients don't respond or only partially respond to existing treatments

And since Pharma always needs more blockbusters, it's easy to see the commercial appeal:

  • 100+ autoimmune diseases affect 15-20M Americans (4.5% globally), with rising incidence due to lifestyle / environmental factors and improved diagnosis
  • Unlike most cancers, I&I patients can be young, meaning a near-curative therapy option has a lifetime of benefit and cost savings
  • It's a massive market with $100B in aggregate economic burden; for context, the US has 80K annual NHL cases vs. >1M SLE cases

The space is still very early, and based on management comments, these deals primarily provide platform optionality. Compared to ex vivo cell therapies, an in vivo approach can be safer, more scalable and more convenient, while still offering a potential functional cure.

The safety bar is much higher in AID than oncology and there are a lot of options (including many generics) to cycle through already, so the playbook is to demonstrate efficacy in the most severe, non-responding patients first and build up data to progressively move towards earlier treatment lines. Multi-year remission is the goal.

But there's real risk these therapies get stuck in later lines. TCEs have been a thorn in cell therapy's side across both oncology and AID - easier dosing, better scalability, cheaper pricing, no lymphodepletion requirements and still solid remission rates. Add in the fact that I&I indications are tightly managed by payors who prefer cycling through cost-effective options first, and the commercial path could narrow considerably.

Still, Pharma is clearly seeing enough upside in the platform potential to place big bets - a string of readouts in 2026+ will look to validate that conviction.

If you're building or evaluating this space and looking for real-time intel to guide BD or investor workflows, get in touch to learn more about Sleuth's offerings.

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