I used Sleuth to compile & analyze ~400 deals - here are the most compelling insights that emerged:

China out-licensing remains dominant, but concentrated

• ~21% of all deals, but heavily skewed towards Ph1/2 or earlier (>70%) and oncology / I&I (>80%)
• With >$4B in upfronts paid (average $109M per deal), the "cheap China assets" narrative is under pressure - Western pharma is seemingly paying equivalent prices, but does so knowing they are getting:

(a) more advanced clinical data vs. similarly-priced preclinical assets in the US and EU and

(b) options on future pipeline at a (much lower) fixed cost, using their Chinese partners as early-stage R&D factories (i.e. see multi-asset structure of GSK / Hengrui deal)

Lilly's acquisition spree makes strategic sense

• 12-year revenue visibility to LOE for mega blockbuster tirzepatide (conensus: largest drug ever) gives them unique capital deployment flexibility into longer-term, higher-risk assets - they're betting on 2035+ portfolio positioning while competitors worry about 2027 cliffs

Upfront $ variance reveals interesting market dynamics

• Cardio-metabolic leads in dollars but inflated by Pharma pressure to get into the obesity race (i.e. Roche / Zealand as an outlier deal)
• I&I trades at a 50% discount to oncology despite deals involving more late-stage assets (61% of all deals were Ph2+ vs. 47% for oncology)